$$$ KPO and CZM $$$: 2019

Monday, December 30, 2019

Expenses - June 2019

For the last few months (since June), I stopped blogging about our expenses because there were just too many things ongoing - our house was doing renovation with a few hiccups, CZM deciding to do a semi-retirement (it ended after 1 month. lol.), I was looking out externally and went for a few interviews (decided to stay on now - shall blog about this another time), visited and returned from Canada/USA (yet to blog about this too) and planning for our RTW (Singapore - Mexico - Peru - Bolivia - Brazil - Switzerland - Singapore) which is happening next month.

Anyway, I should not be procrastinating too much before the year ends and finally took some time and tabulated the expenses for the last few months as well as our annual expenses. You will soon understand why we barely buy/invest this year.

Current Profile: 29 years couple who got married last year but are still staying separately with our own parents while waiting for the renovation of our BTO to be completed.

Our total expenses were $14,035.27! The breakdown would be as follows:


KPO Expense Fund (our common fund): $9,129.03



KPO: $2,421.26


CZM: $2,484.98


House



House will be our biggest expenses for the next few months. We made the first 10% downpayment for our renovation and you can read more about it here - Renovation Cost for Our New House.

We have started paying for our mortgage/housing loan. The loan amount is about $380k, amortized across 25 years will mean we need to pay $861 each. We are paying this using our CPF OA. Why are we not using cash? Long story short, we are generating higher returns with our cash. You can read about our strategy here - Chiong Housing Loan or Take It Slow?

Vacation


Vacation is still one of our biggest expenses. Most of it would be for the upcoming Canada vacation. The increase in other subcategories is because we went to KL for a few days and I just got reminded that CZM owes me another travel post. lol.

Parents
$1,360 - This is the total amount we are giving to our parents as allowance.

Darling/CZM
$484.51 - 3 x Lancome Advanced Génifique Serum bought from Duty Free (forgot the size)

$200 - CZM signed up for some massage/facial thingy.

$64.04 - Watson

Food
$473.98 - Our combined food expenses are still on the low side because we are still staying with our parents and I usually skip lunch.

Treat
$339.95 - Treated family, friends and colleagues to food/drinks. I can't really remember what's the special occasion but I had a Chope reservation at New Ubin. Guess that's where the majority went to.

Credit Card
$241.57 - Paid annual fee for Citi Premier Miles to get 10k miles and some processing fees for the transfer of miles.

Insurance
$189.00 - This is a fixed monthly cost for the basic coverage - $1 million term life ($71), Early Cancer Care - 150k ($64) and hospitalization ($53).

Transportation
$110.28 - Our EZ Link/Account-Based Ticketing (ABT) for the month. Read about this Samsung Pay x SimplyGo x Visa Hack if you are a Samsung mobile phone user.

$56.4 - Cab

Gift
$138.00 - Wedding red packet for a colleague at JB Pekin Restoran (北京楼).

$2.90 - CZM bought something for a friend.

Mobile
$98.33 - First month of my mobile plan (pro-rated + 1 month in advance) M1 Corporate Individual Scheme (CORI), mySim70.

Entertainment
$20 - CZM and I went to watch a movie.

Summary
January 2019 - $11,712.06
February 2019 - $7,301.63
March 2019 - $6,954.84
April 2019 - $5,236.49 ($30,027.34 including the next 5% downpayment)
May 2019 - $4,860.15
June 2019 - $14,035.27

Our total expenses for 2019: $‭50,100.44‬
Average expenses per month for 2019: $‭8,350.07

Do like any of the following for the latest update/post!
1. FB Page - KPO and CZM
2. Twitter - KPO and CZM
3. Click here to subscribe using email :)
4. Instagram - KPO_and_CZM (Did you see those delicious food photos to the right --> Unfortunately, you can't see it on mobile.)

Saturday, December 28, 2019

Advance Inspection - Residential Inspection

Hello everyone! After a long hiatus, I am finally here blogging! I am sure KPO will be very pleased (and will stop nagging). In KPO's previous post - Renovation Cost for Our New House, he talked about how we ended up choosing ID over contractor as we are not familiar with the renovation and would prefer to leave it to the SMEs ("Subject Matter Expert") to deal with it. However, do we 100% have faith in them? Probably not, given all the horror reno stories which you see/hear from your friends/online. We also personally encountered one ID company who almost "ate up" our deposit without performing any work. We went to CASE and were also mentally prepared to go to Small Claims Tribunal to get back our deposit. Long story short, we managed to get our deposit back but lost faith in this industry due to the many black sheeps.

As such, we were absolutely amazed when we learnt that there is such a thing/service - defect inspection. Being an ex-auditor, I know how important it is to have someone neutral and professional to inspect the books and records of a company (otherwise the firm will have no incentive to ensure correct reporting right?). Similarly, the defect inspection company acts as a neutral third party who helps to inspect home and properties.

We compared a few different defect inspection companies (there aren't many in the market) and have shortlisted both Advance Inspection and Absolute Inspection as they are the bigger market players and hence more reputable. Eventually, we chose Advance Inspection as they are more budget friendly. Most people will ask why engage a defect inspection company instead of checking on your own? Well, yes you definitely can do it on your own, but we decided not to take matters on our own hands and leave it to the experts. After all, it is only a small cost as compared to the price of the house (typically range from $200 for 480 sqft two-room unit to $1,000 for a 2,000 sqft home).

We first engaged Advance Inspection for the Residential Inspections upon our HDB key collection (before reno starts). This is important as they will help to check for any defects by the developer and ensure that rectification works are done before the start of renovation to avoid future disputes with ID/Contractor. There are three inspections in total:
  • 1st Inspection: Identifying defective works & report submission for client / developer
  • 2nd Inspection: Joint inspection appointment with client & developer on defective works
  • 3rd Inspection: Conducting of a final inspection on developer rectification works 
We thought the first inspection will be really fast as they are the experts. It will just be the typical checking of hollow tiles, electricity etc. However, we were wrong. The inspector assigned took more than 4 hours. He checked every nook and cranny, from tiles to electricity, from painting to bathroom water flow. At the end of the 1st inspection, this is how our house looked like.



Blue tapes/defects everywhere! The box up tape means chipped tiles.



 We received a 4 page report on the defects on that night. How efficient!



The second inspection was more of a breeze. The inspector went through with the developer/BSC on the defective works and left it to them to correct. We noted that the workers from BSC have the tendency of removing the blue stickers after rectification is done, so a suggestion was to remind them NOT to remove after rectifying the defects, or only perform rectification when you are around. Another thing that we noted is that the workers did not rectify all the flaws. Some of the flaws we find it really small and decided to let it go. Besides, we have the 3rd inspection, so the inspector from Advance Inspection can help to point out if there are any major issue no rectified. 

On the 3rd inspection, there wasn't any major issue noted. The inspector added a few more stickers, mainly due to uneven walls or paint. As this is the final round of check by them, we arranged another time with BSC to ensure that the workers complete all remaining rectification. 


Given KPO's kiam pok nature, had we regretted engaging Advance Inspection? Absolutely not. We could not have imagined climbing high and low to identify defects, bearing in mind that there was absolutely no fans/air con installed in our unit at that time.

I will leave to the next post to share our experience on the post renovation defects check. Till then.

If you would like to engage Advance Inspection too, do use our referral/promo code - AISG0730. You will be able to get $30 discount and we will get $30 for the referral :) Simply contact them either through mobile/WhatsApp (8748 0988) or email (info@advanceinspection.sg) and quote the code.

Do like any of the following for the latest update/post!
1. FB Page - KPO and CZM
2. Twitter - KPO and CZM
3. Click here to subscribe using email :)
4. Instagram - KPO_and_CZM (Did you see those delicious food photos to the right --> Unfortunately, you can't see it on mobile.)

Renovation Cost for Our New House

After about 4/5 months of renovation, we decided to move in on the last week of October before the final phase of the renovation was completed (touching up). We told the ID (interior designer) at the start that we are in no rush because we did not want to rush him/the renovation and compromise on the quality. Wrong move man, the ID really took his own sweet time and there were still a few major screw up -.-

We decided to look for an ID for our renovation instead of taking things into our own hands and go the contractors route because we felt that we lack the knowledge and time to handle it ourselves. Hence, we started looking for ID even before collecting the key to our BTO HDB back in March 2019. We approached > 10 different ID companies (most were "recommended" by Renopedia, HomeRenoGuru and Qanvast while a few were from friends/relatives recommendation as well as what we saw on social media).

We sort of already knew the design we wanted (e.g. hacking one room to make the living room bigger, platform bed, etc.) but the quotations we received from them varies greatly! It ranges from $50k to $90k! We shortlisted down to 2 IDs, they were not the cheapest and definitely not the most expensive with quotations around $60k - 1 of them was recommended by a relative and he seems like a pretty honest guy while the other has a bit of "ah beng" feel who has nice designs similar to what we wanted. We met up with them 2/3 more times to discuss more in details (payment terms, materials, etc.) and even went down to their house/previous project. We also told both of them that we will be engaging professional to check the renovation before releasing the final payment and the honest guy told us that we cannot expect 100% perfection, got to close one eye. At the back of our minds, we were thinking how can one close one eye after paying $60k, confirm both eyes open big big. Eventually, we decided to choose the ah beng over the honest guy (maybe too honest).


Most IDs were asking for 5% for final payment but we wanted to hold more and split the payment. His initial payment terms were 10%, 40%, 45% and 5% but we negotiated till something like the above.


We were using what CASE proposed/recommended previously as justification. You will not find the percentages in the updated document. We signed the $62,888 contract in early June and these are the dates when we made the remaining payment. You will be able to see how slow it was as compared to the 2 months timeline he gave us initially.

10% - June 2019
40% - July 2019
20% - August 2019
20% - September 2019
10% - December 2019

Around August, he told us that he did not account for one portion of the cabinet and we will have to top up and gave us the below revised quotation - $65,658. My friends were suggesting that I get him to tank half of it because it was his fault for missing it but we just wanted everything to finish ASAP so we just agreed to it.


The above does not include the electrician cost which is $3,006. Our electrician cost might be slightly higher because I requested for all the light/fan switches to have the neutral wire/point which is necessary for our Xiaomi smart home setup (will blog about this next time) and we moved/added quite a few power points.


Let me share some photos of those screw up:

1. My "favourite". We have an open kitchen concept (no wall) but both our mum said the kitchen cannot be open. lol. So we added glass panel to "close" the kitchen. Below is the fixed glass panel and there will be a sliding glass panel on the other side.


As you can see, the fixed panel was installed over the cabinet and when the sliding glass panel closes, we will not be able to open the kitchen drawers =.=" We usually see this kind of design on social media or 9gag. Definitely did not expect to see it in our own home. Imagine the frustration... This happened because the ID did not leave additional space on the side for our fridge when we gave the fridge dimensions.


2. He installed 3 sliding panels and 1 tiny fixed panel for our service yard windows and insisted that it has to be done this way because there is a pipe (top right corner) blocking it. In the end, I told him to remove it (not paying (-$580) for it too) and found another contractor to install it properly for us at $380. See the 50% markup just for the windows?!


3. Lots of hollow tiles. Not visible to the eyes but can be heard clearly with the correct equipment/coin. The higher tiles are a risk as it may fall off in the future. According to the standards/recommendations defined by BCA (Building and Construction Authority), any hollowness or cracks need to be rectified. This was highlighted by the professional defect inspector we engaged (will blog about this next time too). Imagine the mess created when they were replacing it...


Total Cost: $65,658 + $3,006 - $580 + $380 = $‭68,464‬

In all fairness, he was still responsible enough (or for the remaining 10% payment) to arrange for the various contractors to come down to fix/touch up whatever that was flagged. Comparing our experience with some of the horror stories in the Budget Reno (Singapore) Facebook group, it was just a small case of poor project management.

Would we have engaged him again if we can turn back time? Definitely not, we would/should have followed our gut feeling and went with the honest guy. Will we engage ID or contractors the next time? Hopefully, there wouldn't be a next time since we do not have plans on getting a second property but we will definitely be engaging contractors, managing everything ourselves and saving some money. If both ID and contractors are going to give me headaches, I might as well save some money.

No naming/shaming individual but I will leave the company name here :)

Honest Feel: Length & Breadth
Ah Beng Feel: Mons Interior (previously known as Mons Werk Interior Design)

Renovation Costs Breakdown






Do like any of the following for the latest update/post!
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2. Twitter - KPO and CZM
3. Click here to subscribe using email :)
4. Instagram - KPO_and_CZM (Did you see those delicious food photos to the right --> Unfortunately, you can't see it on mobile.)

Monday, December 16, 2019

Voluntary Contribution (VC) to CPF Medisave for Tax Reduction

I previously blogged about using SRS and CPF RSTU (CPF SA) but yet to blog on tax reduction using voluntary contribution (VC) to CPF MA. Since I just top up, might as well take some screenshot and show how it is done :)

Calculate YTD CPF Contribution
Firstly, the amount that one can contribute/top-up is subjected to the CPF Annual Limit which is $37,740 now. Even if one were to top-up more, it will be refunded (without any interest) but you wouldn't want that to happen right?


Log in to your CPF, click on "My Statement" on the left side of the menu. Scroll down to "Section B", select "Contribution History" specifying the start of the year till the latest month and you will be presented with all your CPF contributions year to date. The number one can afford to top up will be the CPF Annual Limit minus off the total CPF contributions for the year.

Voluntary Contribution (VC) to Medisave
Once you are ready to top-up, click on "My Requests" followed by "Building Up My/My Recipient's CPF savings" and look for "Contribute to my Medisave Account via PayNow or eNets".


Next, you will be redirected to the following page with the selected option - "Contribute to my Medisave (Tax deductible)". Click on "Next".


You will be shown some important things to note as well as the relevant T&Cs. Make sure you read through because the process is irreversible. Accept the T&Cs and click on "Start".


You will be prompted for your contact number as well as the amount you want to contribute. Right at the bottom, there is this button that allows you to "Check Allowable Contribution".


If you were to contribute based on that, there is a high chance you would have over contributed...


At least based on my observation, my CPF is always "late/delayed" by one month. The CPF for my November salary will only be credited on December, hence the allowable contribution is lacking/not updated with one month of contribution.

I have created a spreadsheet/calculator which I felt is more accurate and you can play with it here - Voluntary Contribution (VC) to Medisave for Tax Reduction Calculator.


Anyway, once you enter the amount you would like to contribute, you will be shown a PayNow QR code. Simply use your mobile ibanking app to scan it, initiate the PayNow transfer and it will be reflected in your CPF Medisave account almost immediately!

Like I have mentioned before, besides looking at it from a tax saving/reduction point of view, one can also look at it from an investment point of view. The dollar tax savings can be treated as a return on investment/dividend. The ROI would be equivalent to your income tax rate + a guaranteed 4% capital growth (SA/MA interest) year on year.

Hope this helps!

Do like any of the following for the latest update/post!
1. FB Page - KPO and CZM
2. Twitter - KPO and CZM
3. Click here to subscribe using email :)
4. Instagram - KPO_and_CZM (Did you see those delicious food photos to the right --> Unfortunately, you can't see it on mobile.)

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

StashAway - November 2019

I recently wrote an Endowus CPF/SRS Review and will deposit some money into my SRS once my salary is in and invest them through Endowus.

Anyway, we have 3 portfolios on 2 accounts now due to our new strategy - New Strategy: StashAway + Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS):
KPO and CZM Cash - StashAway Risk Index 22%
KPO SRS - StashAway Risk Index 36%
CZM SRS - StashAway Risk Index 14%

1. PORTFOLIO SUMMARY (as of the last day of the month)

KPO

CZM

Based on the statement (30 Nov 2019), KPO made $‭‭‭3,055.49‬ and CZM made $‭‭‭128.96‬. Unfortunately, it seems that StashAway has removed the effect/return of Currency Impact in the statement as well.

As of 11 Dec 2019, these are our portfolio performance:


KPO and CZM Cash - StashAway Risk Index 22%: $‭23,201.52 (+18.55% - Capital: $20,500)


KPO SRS - StashAway Risk Index 36%: $3,011.72 (+18.22% - Capital: $2,750)


CZM SRS - StashAway Risk Index 14%: $2,372.04 (+12.94% - Capital: $2,250)

2. PORTFOLIO DETAILS 
Note that these are reported in USD.

KPO and CZM Cash - StashAway Risk Index 22%

KPO SRS - StashAway Risk Index 36%

CZM SRS - StashAway Risk Index 14%

3. FEE CALCULATIONS


The fee stated is based on the monthly-average assets SGD $15,546.48 x 0.8% / 365 days * 30 days = $10.22.

Without the referral, it would have been:
First SGD $25,000.00 x 0.8% / 365 days * 30 days = $16.44
Next SGD ($25,546.48 - $25,000.00) x 0.7% / 365 days * 30 days = $0.31

Total Fee = $16.75


The fee stated is based on the monthly-average assets SGD $2,110.40 x 0.8% / 365 days * 30 days = $1.39.


We used Grab points to redeem for StashAway credits (1,200 points for $5 credit). Not sure if it is still available though.

StocksCafe



Looking at the time-weighted return (18.78%), we can see that StashAway is "outperforming" the STI ETF (including fees). In addition, it has lower volatility and max drawdown.


On the other hand, StashAway is underperforming the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) with lower volatility and max drawdown.

Which is the best? Only time will tell :)

This is the link to our spreadsheet - KPO & CZM StashAway Portfolio VS STI ETF which I have also added to Our Portfolio page.

StashAway Referral Link for Our Readers
Here you go: KPO and CZM Referral Link

If you are interested in the smart portfolio tracker (StocksCafe) which I am using, sign up using my link for a discounted rate :) Refer to our Referrals page for more information.

You might be interested in previous months update too:
StashAway - January 2019 - $16,051.10
StashAway - February 2019 - $17,397.81
StashAway - March 2019 - $18,780.96
StashAway - April 2019 - $19,702.85
StashAway - May 2019 - $20,823.09
StashAway - June 2019 - $22,031.43
StashAway - July 2019 - $‭23,486.36‬
StashAway - August 2019 - $24,776.05
StashAway - September 2019 - $25,510.69‬
StashAway - October 2019 - $‭27,170.58‬‬
StashAway - November 2019 - $‭28,434.45‬

Do like any of the following for the latest update/post!
1. FB Page - KPO and CZM
2. Twitter - KPO and CZM
3. Click here to subscribe using email :)
4. Instagram - KPO_and_CZM (Did you see those delicious food photos to the right --> Unfortunately, you can't see it on mobile.)

Saturday, December 7, 2019

Portfolio - November 2019

We are now in the last month of the year, last chance to do some tax planning/optimizing using CPF/SRS. I last blogged about one possible investment platform - Endowus CPF/SRS Review as well as an old but still relevant article on CPF RSTU - Is It Worth It?

Our portfolio reached another new high as it increases by 4.15% to $457,171 - $9,856.48 of capital injection and $8,358.08 of capital gain. The one in blue is the StashAway portfolio, green is SGX and the total is in black.


If you prefer to look at numbers, this is the raw data used to generate the above bar graph. These numbers are as of the last day of the month.


"Cash Flow" is the amount of money being injected/withdrawn from the portfolio (buying stocks = +ve cash flow while selling stocks and collecting dividends = -ve cash flow)

SOLD
None

BOUGHT
- CapitaRetail China Trust (4,000 units) @ $1.530
- Mapletree Commercial Trust (2,000 units) @ $2.240

We were looking at Mapletree NAC Trust after the price has fallen from its high due to the ongoing Hong Kong protest but after comparing it against CapitaRetail China Trust, CapitaRetail China Trust was still more attractive and much safer. Shortly after, the Christmas Tree in Festival Walk got burned and the mall was destroyed by the protestors >.<" The worst part is Festival Walk actually accounts for the majority of Mapletree NAC Trust NPI (~62%) so the impact is definitely huge. Anyway, at our entry price, we are looking at ~ 6.7% dividend yield assuming DPU remains constant.

We had 500 units of Mapletree Commercial Trust and were allocated 35 shares for its rights issue. We oversubscribed by another 1,965 (to avoid odd lots) and was actually allocated 100%.

Dividends
The total dividends collected this month is $1,535.65. The breakdown is as follows:

Company Symbol ExDate Shares Total
DBS Group Holdings Ltd D05 18-Nov-19 800 $240.00
First Real Estate Investment Trust - Units AW9U 13-Nov-19 11,009 $236.69
Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust - Unit BUOU 13-Nov-19 10,200 $103.02
NetLink NBN Trust - Unit CJLU 13-Nov-19 6,000 $151.20
Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust - Units C2PU 7-Nov-19 2,000 $66.00
Far East Hospitality Trust - Stapled Units Q5T 6-Nov-19 10,316 $107.29
Ascendas Hospitality Trust - Stapled Units Q1P 5-Nov-19 15,000 $399.00
Starhill Global Real Estate Investment Trust - Units P40U 5-Nov-19 12,000 $135.60
Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust - Unit RW0U 4-Nov-19 5,000 $96.85

Total dividends collected for 2019: $‭18,630.35‬
Average dividends per month for 2019: $‭1,693.66‬

StashAway

KPO

CZM

Capital: $25,250.00
Current: $‭‭‭28,434.05‬

You might be interested in previous months update too:
Portfolio Performance in 2018 - $354,145
Portfolio - January 2019 - $376,381
Portfolio - February 2019 - $379,814
Portfolio - March 2019 - $400,263
Portfolio - April 2019 - $400,263
Portfolio - May 2019 - $392,934
Portfolio - June 2019 - $415,611
Portfolio - July 2019 - $420,798
Portfolio - August 2019 - $421,644
Portfolio - September 2019 - $420,854
- Portfolio - October 2019 - $438,957
- Portfolio - November 2019 - $457,171

Do like any of the following for the latest update/post!
1. FB Page - KPO and CZM
2. Twitter - KPO and CZM
3. Click here to subscribe using email :)
4. Instagram - KPO_and_CZM (Did you see those delicious food photos to the right --> Unfortunately, you can't see it on mobile.)

Monday, December 2, 2019

Endowus CPF/SRS Review

When Endowus was marketing about the possibility of investing through CPF, it got me really interested. In addition, the fees are lower if one were to invest using CPF, hence I indicated my interest and was put on their waiting list.


Meanwhile, I was reading about Dimensional Funds here and there on Farma French, the various factors, etc. However, when it launched, I was slightly disappointed.

1. Underlying Funds are NOT Dimensional Funds


The above is a cash portfolio with a -40% loss tolerance. The underlying funds are made up of 80% Dimensional World Equity and 20% PIMCO Bond Funds.


The above is a CPF OA portfolio with a similar -40% loss tolerance. Look at the difference in funds being used. For instance, the Infinity US 500 Stock Index Fund simply tracks the S&P500 with a 0.69% fee/expense ratio (~0.4% after the rebate of trailer fees from Lionglobal) excluding Endowus fee. In comparison, any ETF that tracks the S&P500 will definitely have a much lower expense ratio excluding trading commission. Not even going to waste time elaborating further for the rest of the funds.

My guess is Dimensional Funds are not CPFIS approved, hence they are using unit trusts. You can refer to this - CPFISInvestmentProducts.pdf. This is probably why StashAway introduced SRS but not CPF investment too.

2. Fees
At one glance, it seems that you would be paying lower fees for CPF investment (0.4% vs 0.6% for cash). However, if you take a closer look at the above screenshots, you will see that the CPF portfolio has a higher total cost - 1.12% vs 1.06% for cash. In my opinion, it becomes a lot less attractive because there is already a guaranteed return of 2.5% by not investing/taking any risk. Most importantly, if one cannot predict the future/return of their investment, he/she can definitely control the fees/cost which will indirectly affect the return.

3. Misleading Risk Tolerance
The below shows a portfolio recommended for someone with an extremely high risk tolerance of -60% (losing more than half of the capital).


Despite selecting a loss tolerance of -45% (less than half of the capital), the exact same portfolio was recommended as above.


Anyway, these are the 6 different portfolios:
1. 100% Stocks: -45% to -60%
2. 80% Stocks and 20% Bonds: -39% to -44%
3. 60% Stocks and 40% Bonds: -33% to -38%
4. 40% Stocks and 60% Bonds: -27% to -32%
5. 20% Stocks and 80% Bonds: -20% to -26%
6. 100% Bonds: -13% to -19%
7. k thx bye: 0% to -12%


Endowus explained how their risk tolerance and asset allocation works in the FAQ


I pointed this out because it is not as intuitive as what StashAway is offering where every change in the risk tolerance/index will result in a different portfolio being recommended to the investors.

4. Buggy/Inconsistent Forecast (Fixed about 2 days after the initial post)
I played around with it and is no longer experiencing the inconsistent forecast. Long story short, they reached out saying it has been fixed but I was too busy to update. You can refer to our email conversation below.


### No longer valid
I am not sure if this is a "feature" or a bug but the forecast that was shown to me changes even if I kept everything (risk tolerance, initial investment, and monthly investment) constant. It looks like they are using some random generator to make the forecast appear different. Why???


This is an SRS portfolio with maximum risk tolerance (-60%). You can see that it is made up of 100% stocks and has a projected annualized return of 7.75% with a standard deviation of 13.57%. My initial investment will be $2,000 followed by $500 monthly. At the end of 30 years, my deposits/capital will be $182,000 in total. You can see that the forecast is showing an 18% probability that I will underperform a 2.5% return (CPF OA interest). The median/most likely outcome is that it will grow to $450,492.

Here comes the annoying part. To replicate this bug/issue, one can just type in the same amount into the monthly investment and the chart will refresh/regenerate.


Everything was kept constant but I am shown a vastly different forecast. The forecast is now showing a 5% probability that I will underperform a 2.5% return (CPF OA interest). The median/most likely outcome is that it will grow to $743,051.

StashAway forecast only changes when there is a change in the variables which make much more sense. Another interesting observation is StashAway 22% risk index portfolio median/most likely outcome is much higher at $966,801. Is it a case of fees eating into returns or a case of one being too conservative/aggressive in the forecast? I am too lazy to dig further.


Will I invest using Endowus? 
Yes and no. I will not be investing using my CPF OA because I feel that it just isn't worth the risk considering that I can always transfer to SA for a higher risk-free return of 4%. Alternatively, keeping the excess money in OA will provide the liquidity/buffer for our mortgage/housing loan.

I will not invest my cash as well given that the underlying portfolio will be identical when investing through SRS. Going the SRS route means lower fees + some tax savings while the trade-off would be losing the liquidity of your cash.

Since it is near the end of the year, I will most likely be topping up SRS and giving Endowus a try soon. Why not continue with StashAway? Initially, it was just out of curiosity on the possibility of investing using CPF OA then I read an article by Kyith on Investment Moat - Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) Funds for Singaporeans – My Comprehensive Guide and discovered something quite shocking - estate duty/tax. Shall keep that for another article!

There are two sides to every coin. Read this article by Endowus on why we should invest using our CPF OA - And this is why we advise people to invest their CPF

Anyway, Endowus has reached out and offered a masked referral link for our readers! You will get S$10,000 managed free for 6 months ($20 equivalent) and we will get $20 too!

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