Sunday, November 19, 2017

IPO Hit and Run Calculator

KPO is sharing more spreadsheet! Hahahaha.

We have a few IPO upcoming and the latest one is RE&S Holdings Limited (closes on tomorrow/19th November 12pm) followed closely by MindChamps (closes on 22 November 12pm).

This post is not about my analysis of the company. You can refer to these analyses:
- Singapore IPOs: RE&S Holdings Limited
- sginvestors.io: Phillip Securities IPO Note
- Singapore IPOs: MindCamps Preschool Limited

I did a 3 years analysis a few months back on IPOs - Will IPO Make Money - IPO Analysis for the Last 3 Years. Do take a look if you have not :) I jokingly concluded that we should participate in all the IPOs and sell on its opening day! While I was reading Mr. IPO's summary on RE&S Holdings, he mentioned that this IPO will be a hit and run and I thought of coming up with this spreadsheet.

A quick way to tell if a company is trading at fair value is to compare its PE against that of its peers. In the above analysis, we can be sure that RE&S Holdings is trading below the industry average PE. Do note PE comparison is a quick way to compare stocks, not the best way. Is there even a best way? lol.


Using RE&S Holdings as an example, the following highlighted fields can be modified/configured with the relevant numbers. Based on the budget/cash you have, it will automatically compute the number of units that can be applied. One can apply for IPO either through the public tranche (ATM or ibanking) with a $2 application fee or through placement where the brokerage fee is at 1% with 7% GST.


Assuming that we were allocated X number of units and we sell the stock at around industry PE which is $0.255. Regardless of the number of units allocated, we will definitely profit from it including all the fees!


However, if we were to sell the stock slightly higher than IPO price at $0.225, depending on the number of units allocated, we may/may not lose money after deducting the initial cost and the commission from selling the stock. This spreadsheet will also be helpful in determining a trailing stop loss for your IPO stock.

Google spreadsheet can be accessed here - IPO Hit and Run Calculator. Have fun!

On a side note, we will be applying for 101,000 units of RE&S Holdings Limited. Huat ah!

Friday, November 17, 2017

StashAway Clarifications - Reward-to-Risk Ratio

I received an email titled as above from Freddy Lim (Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer of StashAway) a few days ago regarding my previous blog post - StashAway - October 2017.


In the monthly update, there is a section "StashAway VS STI ETF" where I attempt to track and compare the performance of our StashAway investment with that of either STI ETF through different platforms. The rationale is that I have no way to compare the performance of the different robo-advisors but I can certainly compare it with both the STI ETF. The difference in performance would be the opportunity cost one would be experiencing for choosing any of the 3 investment options.

Below is a screenshot of his email:


Freddy states that a better comparison is to include risk/volatility of the asset using Reward-to-Risk Ratio. In his calculations, he provided the annual volatility for each asset, pro-rated them based on the holding period to arrive at the Holding Period Volatility and divided the returns I have computed (Holding Period Returns) with his figures.

Reward-to-Risk Ratio = Holding Period Returns / Holding Period Volatility

I quote, "For a given dollar of risk taken by investors, StashAway's P28 has produced 1.7 times the amount in returns. This is significantly higher than the two STI tracking ETFs which returned 1.25 and 1.27 times of risk taken". That certainly sounds logical but the question is how do I get/compute the annual volatility of each asset. So I responded to his email and Freddy was kind enough to provide the following explanations:


Unfortunately, KPO is not rich enough to subscribe to Bloomberg to get such information and his Maths is not good. Fortunately, I am a Friend of StocksCafe, so I shall try my luck by submitting a new feature request to Ph.D. Evan. Hahahaha.


Meanwhile, I have updated the spreadsheet - KPO & CZM StashAway Portfolio VS STI ETF to include the Reward-to-Risk Ratio using the above values provided by Freddy.


I would like to emphasize that the returns computed in the spreadsheet are too short (3 months) to be meaningful. I would say the same even 1 year later. 10 years later would be ideal but who knows if I will still be blogging then. lol. We know that in theory asset diversification will provide a higher return in the long run. Even a simple, 60% stocks 40% bonds would beat a 100% stocks allocation in the long run. The question is how long is considered long? We also know that high risk gives a higher return and vice versa but can we have the best of both worlds (minimum risk and maximum return)? This is what I hope StashAway will be able to help us achieve.

At the end of the day, I am doing this for 2 reasons - out of interest/hobby to track and see our investment grows and to report to my boss (CZM) since I am the one that persuaded her to invest our mutual fund (KPO Investment Fund) into StashAway.

Monday, November 13, 2017

StashAway - October 2017

October has been an excellent month for stocks, high gets higher! Our portfolio benefited from it - Portfolio Update - October 2017. StashAway is no different, we had a much better return compared to the previous month - StashAway - September 2017.

One thing to note is that StashAway has changed their web interface and introduced mobile application - StashAway Just Got Better! (Mobile App + New Interface). The change can also be seen in the monthly statement.

1. ACCOUNT SUMMARY (as of the last day of the month)


Returns have been broken down into "Portfolio Returns" and "Currency Impact". Exchange Rates are captured for both "Opening Balance" and "Closing Balance" giving investors much more visibility into their money/investment. Our capital is $2,000 so there is a $20.14 gain.

2. PORTFOLIO DETAILS 


We can finally see the P&L for the underlying ETFs!

3. TRANSACTIONS



Dividends!

4. FEE CALCULATIONS


I recommended/referred a friend to invest and will be enjoying fee waiver for the next 6 months :) Technically, it is only $10,000 managed for free but I do not foresee us reaching/exceeding that in the next 6 months.


In my opinion, these are all welcome changes and a testament to StashAway's commitment in providing the best platform by listening to feedback from their users/bloggers - A Coffee Session with Michele Ferrario - CEO of StashAway and Finance Smiths: StashAway Open Discussion. We were invited too but decided not to attend. We might attend if it is a masquerade ball. lol.

StashAway VS STI ETF
Since there is no way to compare the performances among the robo-advisors, I came out with a spreadsheet to track our StashAway portfolio performance (General Investing - Risk Level 28) against that of STI ETF which I will be updating on a monthly basis. For simplicity, I shall assume that one can either invest in Nikko STI ETF using POSB Invest-Saver or invest in SPDR STI ETF using SCB Priority Online Trading (no minimum commission). These would be the opportunity costs while we continue to invest in StashAway.


This month commentary: Interestingly, both STI ETFs are generating a much higher return than StashAway after fees. Although our StashAway account will not be incurring any fees till next year April, I will continue to add fees (estimated by taking the monthly-averaged assets x 0.8%/12 months) to the spreadsheet for better comparison. It is worth noting that the fees incurred by StashAway will probably exceed that of SCB Priority Online Trading soon.

Which is the best? Only time will tell :)

This is the link to our spreadsheet - KPO & CZM StashAway Portfolio VS STI ETF which I have also added to Our Portfolio page.

Friday, November 10, 2017

Bye Yahoo Finance! Hi Alpha Vantage!

Yahoo Finance decided to discontinued their API services last week and cause a lot of spreadsheets and Excel around the world to break including mine. lol. SGX data is very expensive hence Google Finance does not provide it and others charge a fee for it. Stocks.cafe (formerly SGX cafe) is paying thousands for the licensing fee - The True Cost of Being Free.

Kyith from Investment Moats was kind enough to come out with a workaround by pulling all the SGX stock price from his own site/server - Yahoo Finance Data Shuts Down – My Modification to My Stock Portfolio Tracker. However, that is slightly overkilled (loading 1022 stocks) if I am only interested in a few stocks' price.


While looking online for another alternative for SGX data, I saw people recommending Alpha Vantage and decided to give it a try. It is actually very easy to set up and I also found a code to parse the JSON data which makes my life even easier! So I decided to share a step by step instructions on how to set it up :)

1. Register for an Alpha Vantage API key


Go and Claim your API Key by filling up a simple form. Only first name, last name and email are required. After you have submitted, copy down the provided API key somewhere immediately! They do not send any email and you cannot login to look for it again.

2. Go to Script Editor in Google Spreadsheet


Open up the relevant Google spreadsheet, go to "Tools" and click on "Script editor". Next, copy and paste the below code snippet into the newly opened up window/tab.

You can name the project whatever you want and leave the script name as it is. It should look something like below.


Once you are done, save the project.

### Update on 11-11-2017
Some of you may have encountered a weird bug (getting a 0 instead of the latest price) which I believe is due to Alpha Vantage dropping the requests. I have added a sleep function so that it will not make all the requests at once. On the bright side, the longest it should take is 30 seconds due to limitation from Google Script side (all custom function will fail if it sleeps for longer than 30 seconds).

The function should be called in this way: =getAlphaVantageSlowly(B4, ROW())

3. Call the Function and Get your Price!


Simply call the function to get the latest price! Do note that the stock code format is similar to Yahoo Finance - "ABC.SI".

If you are more technical and can write your own code, Alpha Vantage provides other data as well, do refer to their API documentation for more information.

Hope this has helped you :)

Credits: The above code was found in one of investment moat's comments shared by chris.
Limitations: API call frequency does not extend far beyond ~100 calls per minute - Support

Friday, November 3, 2017

StashAway Just Got Better! (Mobile App + New Interface)

A few days ago, I was shopping in Google Play Store and I happened to come across the StashAway mobile application. I went on to check the developer information to confirm that it is a legitimate application.


For example, there are many fake WhatsApp applications out there, so be careful! Given the necessary permissions, these applications can actually spy/steal information from you. Read your files, messages, contacts, etc.


My bad, I digress... So I immediately downloaded the application and set it up. During the setup, you will be prompted to authenticate using fingerprint or PIN going forward.



You might notice that the interface is slightly different but everything that is accessible from the web interface can be accessed from the mobile application which is great! Not sure why StashAway did not broadcast/market their mobile application yet.

Regardless, you can download the mobile application here:
Play Store - https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.awp.stashaway&hl=en
iTunes Store - https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/stashaway-wealth-manager/id1229966330?mt=8

I was surprised to see a change in its web interface on 1st November after launching their mobile application! It is finally providing more information to the end user although I feel that there is still room for improvement.

Home/Portfolios


Nothing much has changed over here. CZM and I only set up 1 portfolio using our a portion of our KPO Fund.

Assets


StashAway has broken down the returns into 2 parts:
1. Investment Returns (movement from prices of underlying ETFs)
2. Currency Impact (foreign exchange movement between SGD and USD)

Do note that the above returns exclude fees (one has to click on the question mark and read the information to be aware) which I felt was slightly misleading. The previous interface showed a single return after fees.

It also shows the Money-weighted Return/Internal Rate of Return (IRR) which is your total return after deducting the fees.


The new interface now allows one to change portfolio easily with a drop-down of all your portfolios.


This is my favorite change! One can now see the P&L of individual ETFs across 3 time periods (1 day, 1 month or all time) which gives one the visibility into which ETFs is making/losing money. This was one of our biggest complaint that there is insufficient transparency when the investor cannot even see the P&L of his underlying investments.

The dividends are still not visible to investors as of this moment. It will briefly appear as an additional row(s) under "Dividends" when a particular ETF is paying a dividend and once it is paid, it goes to the "Cash (USD)" component and the "Dividends" row(s) disappear into thin air. You will see it being paid in the monthly statement and that is about it, you would then lose that information/visibility forever. In my opinion, dividends contribute to the overall P&L of the ETF and should be shown in a separate column.

Transactions


Nothing change in this tab. I was hoping the exchange rate during the conversion of SGD to USD would be captured somewhere, ideally here but guess not.

Let's wait and see if there are any changes to its monthly statement :)

Portfolio Update - October 2017

Our portfolio grew by 6.76% to $286,449 - $8,217.65 of capital injection and around $9,925.66 of capital growth! I got to say the whole of October has been a really good month for property, construction and REIT stocks which form majority of our portfolio :)


There is a lot of activities this month!

SOLD
- Saizen REIT (8,900 units) @ $0.03223 (Delisted - P&L: $3,184.64)
- Sing Holdings (4,400 units) @ $0.47 (P&L: $321.04)
- Wee Hur (5,000 units) @ $0.285 (P&L: -$313.21)
- Croesus Retail Trust (6,801 units) @ $1.17 (Delisted - P&L: $3,339.89)


Saizen REIT was one of our first investment in REIT and we have been holding on to it for about 3 years. I was hoping the reverse takeover would happen but it did not. The huge loss in P&L is because when it got bought over, it distributed its capital in the form of dividends last year. Overall, we made an absolute +39.9% from it and an annualized return of +12.4%.


I was just blogging about Sing Holdings last month that it should trade nearer to its peers PB and it came faster than I expected! It was sold as the trailing stop loss I set got triggered. Fortunately, the price was near what I had in mind and there was a better opportunity (Singtel). Overall, we made an absolute +18.4% and an annualized return of +514.6% for holding 34 days. lol.


I have always wanted to sell Wee Hur because it is not my kind of stocks (not an asset play or a dividend stock). I bought it years back when I was blindly following people in the forum without analyzing the fundamentals myself (I did not know how to do it then). The opportunity came this month when the price shot up too and I sold it on the same day as Sing Holdings for Singtel. Overall, we made an absolute loss of -16% and an annualized loss of -5.8%.


Croesus Retail Trust is another stock that got delisted this month as it was bought over at a premium to its NAV (similar to Saizen). Japan stocks are my lucky star. lol. Overall, we made an absolute +57.8% from it and an annualized return of +20.6% after holding for about 2.5 years.

BOUGHT
- Geo Energy (18,000 units) @ $0.27
- Capitaland Mall Trust (4,000 units) @ $2.02
- Capitaland Commercial Trust (2,000 units) @ $1.643
- Singtel (1,000 units) @ $3.68

In short, Geo Energy is a stock with crazy growth potential and many many years of coal to mine. lol. I will not even try to tell you how to value it because I know I cannot do a better job than these people:

ThumbTack Investor: https://thumbtackinvestor.wordpress.com/?s=geo+energy
SmallCapAsia: Will Geo Continue to Deliver?
Heartland Boy: Geo Energy: Initiation Report
SG investors.io: https://sginvestors.io/sgx/stock/re4-geo-energy-res/analyst-report

We were pretty interested in the Lion-Phillip S-REIT ETF but eventually decided to buy the underlying. Hence, we bought the top 2 REITs in the ETF. I made a mistake with Capitaland Commercial Trust Rights too. You can refer to these articles if you have yet to read them:

1. Mistake on Rights Issue - CapitaLand Commercial Trust
2. How ETFs Work - Using Lion-Phillip S-REIT ETF as an Example
3. 3rd REIT ETF - Lion-Phillip S-REIT ETF


As mentioned above, there was an opportunity to buy Singtel. Given the limited capital and the timely stop loss of Sing Holdings, I went on to liquidate Wee Hur and top up another $200+. Why Singtel?


The above information is extracted from SGX StockFacts sorted by market capitalization. This may come as a surprise to you but the market capitalization of Singtel is actually larger than our 3 banks! Too big to fail? Their business is so diversified that the 4th telco has limited impact. Furthermore, a 4+% dividend yield for a blue chip with the potential for capital growth is extremely attractive!

The total dividends collected this month is $1572.30. The breakdown is as follows:

Company Symbol ExDate Shares Total
First Real Estate Investment Trust AW9U 27-Oct-17 7,000 $149.80
CapitaLand Mall Trust C38U 26-Oct-17 7,000 $194.60
GuocoLand Ltd F17 26-Oct-17 9,000 $630.00
Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust RW0U 26-Oct-17 5,000 $185.70
Soilbuild Business Space REIT SV3U 20-Oct-17 30,000 $412.20

Total dividends collected for 2017: $10,099.22
Average dividends per month for 2017: $841.60

StashAway


Capital: $2,000
Current: $2,032.56 (IRR: 3.2%)

StashAway made a few changes to their interface and we love it! I will be publishing a separate article to discuss them. Stay tuned :)

Health - KPO Needs to Lose Weight
Date: 2017-11-02
Weight: 75.6 kg (Lost close to 8kg already!)
BMI: 25.2

Bought a new toy - Mi Smart Scale!

Saturday, October 28, 2017

New Toy - Mi Smart Scale

KPO purchase a new toy from Lazada - Xiao Mi: Mi Smart Scale to keep track of his weight loss journey but CZM thinks it is a waste of money. Hahahaha. The "kiam" part of me is also telling me that I should not be wasting money but the devils (Lazada and Xiao Mi) won in the end. What can I say, guys love electronics and games while girls love clothes, bags, and shoes?

I first started my weight loss plan on 4th September 2017 - KPO Needs to Lose Weight and my weight was 83.5kg with a BMI of 27.9. I was tracking it manually using a spreadsheet but got slightly lazy. I knew all along that Lazada was selling it for $36 but I felt that it was too expensive. Do note that this is from the official Mi Store after my bad experience with fake stuff on Lazada - Bad Lazada - 128 GB SD Card for $12.27?!.


However, Lazada tempted me with some credit card promotion together with my LiveUp rebate, the price was reduced to $25.89 which was equivalent to a 28% discount and the rest is history.

The thing I like about the weighing scale is that it automatically synchronizes your weight with the Xiao Mi app on your phone. Multiple profiles/people can be added to the app and it is smart enough to update the weight to the correct profile. It will then calculate your BMI and the relevant category you would belong. CZM is normal while KPO is still overweight >.<


As of today (27th October 2017), my weight is 76.9kg with a BMI of 25.6! I have managed to shave off 6.6kg (around 8%) in around 2 months including the 2 weeks we went Hong Kong and Indonesia for vacation and we eat non-stop!

Speaking of which, I will be blogging about our vacation soon since CZM is too busy. I also like how Xiao Mi is so encouraging by informing me that I am lighter than 43% of the people around the area instead of heavier than 57% of the people. lol.

If you notice, I have dropped the weight update on the recent posts because my friends are saying that it is too random. Hahahaha.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Mistake on Rights Issue - CapitaLand Commercial Trust

I made a mistake on CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT) rights issue! By now you would have come across the news - Capitaland Commercial Trust buys Asia Square Tower 2 for $2.09b. Although the acquisition is not yield-accretive (dividend yield decrease to 4.62% from 5.36%), KPO thought that it would still be a great idea to buy and hold CCT directly instead of the upcoming 3rd REIT ETF - Lion-Phillip S-REIT ETF.


The rights issue presented an excellent opportunity for me to become a shareholder at a price lower than the market price if I were to apply/oversubscribe to the rights! Technically, based on the theoretical ex-rights price (TERP) of $1.648 and a subscription price of $1.363, if I were to get my rights/baby shares at any price lower than $0.285 ($1.648 - $1.363), I would have the chance to get it lower than the market/TERP. Hence, I queued at $0.28 and got it on the second day when the rights started trading.


My plan was to buy 2000 rights and oversubscribe by another 2000 shares in the hope that I will be allocated some "bonus" shares at a cost of $1.363 which will reduce my entry price significantly.


Today, I called SCB and told them my grand plan that I would like to subscribe to all 2,000 rights and apply in excess another 2,000 shares. The person said that it might not be possible and put me on hold. When she returned, she asked if I own the mother shares (CCT), I said no. She replied saying that only those that owned the mother shares (CCT) as of the "Rights Issue Books Closure Date", 29th September 2017 can apply in excess.


I went on to question her if the person sold off all his rights, would he still be able to apply in excess assuming he owns the mother shares (CCT) as of the closure date and she responded with a firm yes!

This is not intuitive at all! The rights to apply shares in excess is not with the person owning the rights/baby shares but with the shareholder that sells you the rights. Do take note of this!

To all the readers, this is the mistake I made and I hope that it will not happen to any of you!


On the bright side, my total commission for owning 2,000 shares of CCT is $1.31 (0.04%). lol.

Saturday, October 14, 2017

StashAway - September 2017

Our StashAway September statement is out! If you are wondering, the statements are generated on the second week (Friday) of the month.

I have yet to set up the automatic transfer last month as we were still deciding the final amount to be put into StashAway. Last month, we went on vacation and I forgot about it totally and only transferred the amount on the 1st October 2017 so there is no new deposit shown in this statement. Eventually, we decided to just stick with $500 for various reasons. After all, our goal is to build a portfolio with dividends huge enough for early retirement so we prefer picking our own stocks. StashAway does not generate any cash flow and is used purely for capital growth.

1. ACCOUNT OVERVIEW (as of the last day of the month)


Our capital is $1,000 so that is a $3.52 gain. lol.

2. SECURITIES BREAKDOWN 


Interestingly, there is a -$5.52 difference between the opening and closing positions.

3. CASH BREAKDOWN


Cash USD increases because dividends were collected. Cash SGD decreases due to fees charged by StashAway.

4. TRANSACTIONS


Dividends!

5. FEE CALCULATIONS


The fee for last month is $0.66. The total fee charged is $1.03.

You can compare it with last month statement - A Look Into StashAway Monthly Statement :)

StashAway VS STI ETF
Since there is no way to compare the performances among the robo-advisors, I came out with a spreadsheet to track our StashAway portfolio performance (General Investing - Risk Level 28) against that of STI ETF which I will be updating on a monthly basis. For simplicity, I shall assume that one can either invest in Nikko STI ETF using POSB Invest-Saver or invest in SPDR STI ETF using SCB Priority Online Trading (no minimum commission). These would be the opportunity costs while we continue to invest in StashAway.


This month commentary: The last few days have excellent for stocks and the whole market is so bullish. Nikko STI ETF closed at $3.46 while SPDR STI ETF closed at $3.36. Currently, both STI ETF are generating a higher return than StashAway after fees.

Which is the best? Only time will tell :)

This is the link to our spreadsheet - KPO & CZM StashAway Portfolio VS STI ETF which I have also added to Our Portfolio page.