$$$ KPO and CZM $$$: QAF
Showing posts with label QAF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label QAF. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Portfolio - March 2019

We have hit a new high/milestone this month with a portfolio of $400k! Technically, we can sell off all our shares now, pay for our 4 room BTO and we will be debt free. lol. Of course not, we will never do that and I have blogged about it previously - Chiong Housing Loan or Take It Slow?

Our portfolio increase by 5.38% to $400,263 - $1,469.57 of capital withdrawal and $21,919.17 of capital gain. The one in blue is the StashAway portfolio, green is SGX and the total is in black.


If you prefer to look at numbers, this is the raw data used to generate the above bar graph. These numbers are as of the last day of the month.


"Cash Flow" is the amount of money being injected/withdrawn from the portfolio (buying stocks = +ve cash flow while selling stocks and collecting dividends = -ve cash flow)

SOLD
- APAC Realty (8,000 units) @ $0.665
- QAF (3,000 units) @ $0.755
- Hong Fok (16,500 units) @ $0.940

We purchased 8,000 units of APAC Realty @ $0.57 last month and blogged about its risks. I set a trailing stop loss as the price went higher and higher and eventually, the stop loss was triggered. This gave us a 16.67% return or $760 profit. We are still holding on to the remaining 12,000 units that had a much higher entry price of $0.86 for dividends.


I have given up on QAF after looking at its latest financial results and decided to sell it after ~2 years.


Their earnings/profit has decreased by >50% and although QAF continues to pay out the same amount of dividends for FY 2018 (note that the payout ratio is 351%?!), it is not going to be sustainable... Once QAF cut their dividends and the price will tumble/react accordingly too which is something I would like to avoid. We lost -$1,559.73 in total and that translates an annualized return of -23.3%.


Hong Fok started running up in the last few weeks way before the new URA draft masterplan was announced. We noticed it and decided to set trailing stop loss as well which eventually triggered a day after it hits $1. Fundamentally, PB = 0.33 and PE = 3.32, Hong Fok still looks extremely undervalued. Having said that, I don't believe Hong Fok will ever reach PB 1 and its dividend yield of ~1+% is just not aligned with our long term goal. We made a profit of $4,988.25 in total which is an annualized return of 12.4%.

BOUGHT
- Pacific Century (14,000 units) @ $0.445
- Mapletree Commercial Trust (500 units) @ $1.810
- Frasers Commercial Trust (7,500 units) @ $1.460
- Suntec REIT (5,000 units) @ $1.970
- First REIT (3,900 units) @ $0.990
- Far East HTrust (160 units - DRIP) @ $0.632

We initiated a pretty speculative small position Pacific Century (~1.5% of our portfolio) after reading this report by stockresearchasia.com - Pacific Century Regional Developments (PCRD) rewards shareholders' patience with bumper dividends of 8.7 cts. Ideally, we should be getting 6-8% dividend yield per year until it gets privatised.

Our initial plan/strategy to invest in a REIT ETF on a monthly basis was no longer valid (read this - Lion-Phillip S-REIT ETF - High Cost and Low Yield) and the money had to be redeployed somewhere. With the office rental recovering/growing, we bought the above commercial REITs to "ride" the wave.

First REIT has fallen from grace due to many uncertainties in its sponsor/parent company, Lippo Karawaci. It used to trade at around 5-6% dividend yield but is trading close to 9% dividend yield now. I will not go into the details but this is definitely quite risky.

Dividends
No dividends for this month :(

Total dividends collected for 2019: $2,467.84
Average dividends per month for 2019: $822.61

StashAway

KPO
CZM

Capital: $18,000.00
Current: $18,810.99

You might be interested in previous months update too:
Portfolio Performance in 2018 - $354,145
Portfolio - January 2019 - $376,381
Portfolio - February 2019 - $379,814
- Portfolio - March 2019 - $400,263

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Friday, August 11, 2017

Bleeding Stocks - QAF [Part 1]

Our portfolio has been doing pretty well but there will always be 老鼠屎 (rat shit) dragging down the overall performance. I am not too worried because I have seen worst. lol.

1. QAF

The first thing that came to mind would be the latest quarter result - QAF reports 72% fall in 2Q17 earnings to $8.1 million. I looked at the numbers and it is indeed quite depressing. However, the numbers can be quite misleading.


The numbers highlighted in yellow is where the 72% drop comes from. One has to note that part of the huge drop can be attributed to the one time "Exceptional items" gain due to the sale of 20% stake in Gardenia Bakeries (K.L.) which is missing this quarter. On the bright side, revenue actually increased by 1% which was offset by higher costs/expenses, taxes and a series of unfortunate events:
- Pork prices in the industry have fallen by approximately 20% in the first half of 2017 due to increased competition from the general oversupply situation
- Higher advertising and promotion expense due to launch of new products and heightened competition in the Philippines
- Higher truck rental expense from the increased distribution routes
- Foreign Exchange loss due to the depreciation of the Group’s AUD denominated assets against the Singapore dollar
- and much more. lol.

KPO then spent some time to compile the financial results achieved by QAF in the last 5 years.


Note that QAF has a very low PE in 2016 due to the "Exceptional items" mentioned above which resulted in a much higher EPS. Once excluded, you will see that QAF has been trading at an average PE of 12.931 and average PB of 1.312 from 2012 to 2016.

In the worst case scenario, I will simply assume that the next 2 quarters will be as poor as this quarter (EPS of $0.014) and based on the last closed price of $1.205, the PE will be 17.985 which is pretty high hence the heavy sell down? Will it get worst than this? I dun know but I would hope that higher advertising cost will be translated to higher sales in the next quarter. Furthermore, there is a proposed listing of Rivalea on the Australian Securities Exchange which will result in QAF receiving A$52 million.

Fundamentally, QAF remains to be an excellent business consistently generating free cash flow and rewarding shareholders with suistainable dividends (DPS remains lesser than EPS even in the above worst case scenario).

At what price should one buy QAF then? I dun know. At a price you are comfortable with! Any investment at the right price is a good investment! lol. Buying it at $1.20 would mean you will be looking at a 4.2% dividend yield. Based on the very simplified average PE and PB ratio computed by me, any price between $0.866 and $1.225?


Although I believe more in the numbers, I will end off with a chart. You can see the long term trend is up and QAF is currently at its first support $1.205 and the next support is at $1.15. With 50 MA crossing below 200 MA, it has formed a death cross! Furthermore, the price is now below all the moving averages. Extremely bearish!

This is the google spreadsheet if you want to take a closer look at the numbers. Ending off with numbers still better. lol.

Saturday, June 10, 2017

Portfolio Update - May 2017

It has been 6 months since we I started blogging and unknowingly, the blog has crossed another milestone, it has more than >10k views! Thank you to all the readers out there and I hope that you guys enjoyed whatever stuffs we are sharing. CZM sort of lost interest cause she says this blog is not making money. We applied for Google AdSense but was rejected. lol. Let's see if she ever returns...

Our portfolio grew by 3.85% this month mainly due to capital injection.


We saw some weakness in the price of Capitaland when it fell from a high of $3.78 to $3.46 and that was when we decided to pull the trigger and add more Capitaland shares to our portfolio. It has a NAV of $4.16 and a higher RNAV which also means we are buying at a discount of at least 20%. While waiting patiently for it to hit NAV, it has a dividend yield of 2.78%. Most importantly, it has strong kao shan (靠山 - translate to supported by mountain. lol).

SGX StockFacts - Ownershiper

I was looking for new stocks to buy as the price of most developer and REITs stocks have rise significantly, some even reaching 52 weeks high. Furthermore, CZM always says I need to diversify our portfolio, so I decided to buy some bread! When you look at its PE ratio, it is pretty undervalued when compared to its peers (6 vs 19-26).

ShareInvestor

Looking at its operating cash flow, we can see that it is a rather profitable business too! QAF has also been consistently paying a $0.05 per share of dividend every year (around 3.75% dividend yield).

SGX StockFacts - Financials

We also applied for Sanli IPO (101,000 units) but was not allocated any units. My friend applied 168,000 units cause he says lucky number maybe higher chance - he was not allocated if you are thinking of trying next time. IPO seems to be as hard as applying for BTO or maybe harder?! We got our BTO during our third try, let's see if IPO is faster. (Technically, we can IPO another 13 times since the application fee for BTO is $10 each. lol)

BOUGHT
- QAF (3,000 units) @ $1.33
- CapitaLand (2,000 units) @ $3.48 [Total units: 4,000 units]

The total dividends collected this month is $2014.95. The breakdown is as follows:

Company Symbol ExDate Shares Total
CapitaLand Ltd C31 02-May-17 2,000 $200.00
Wee Hur Holdings Ltd E3B 02-May-17 5,000 $15.00
Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust RW0U 03-May-17 5,000 $186.55
Starhill Global Real Estate Investment Trust P40U 04-May-17 12,000 $141.60
Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd C29 05-May-17 8,000 $320.00
Raffles Medical Group Ltd BSL 08-May-17 4,000 $120.00
Hong Fok Corporation Ltd H30 08-May-17 16,500 $165.00
Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust D5IU 09-May-17 4,000 $35.60
Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust BUOU 12-May-17 8,000 $279.20
Sheng Siong Group Ltd OV8 12-May-17 14,000 $259.00
OUE Ltd LJ3 12-May-17 10,000 $200.00
Far East Hospitality Trust Q5T 18-May-17 10,000 $93.00

Total dividends collected for 2017: $4785.96
Average dividends per month for 2017: $398.83